The central sub sector of the state budget accumulated a deficit of HUF 954.6bn at the end of September 2015. Within that, the shortfall of the central state budget totalled HUF 1006.6bn, while the Social Security Funds and Extrabudgetary State Funds posted surpluses of HUF 29.9bn and HUF 22.1bn, respectively. Recently, the European Commission has lifted the earlier suspension of the EU fund transfers, but it expected to show only later in state budget revenues.

At the end of September 2014, the deficit of the central sub sector of the state budget totalled HUF 844.6bn. The discrepancy between the figures of this year and last stems mainly from the different schedule of EU fund transfers. The EU-related revenues of Chapter Administered Appropriations fell by some HUF 407bn year-on-year, due on the one hand to the difference of calculations and – on the other hand -- to items which the Commission has withheld for review. However, the Government is expecting EU transfers of several billions of forints in the coming months, and these will substantially reduce revenue shortfall. The current delay of EU transfers does not affect the ESA deficit of the state budget, as this method allows items lawfully requested from but delayed by the EU even beyond year-end to be calculated as existing revenues. The EU-related expenditures of Chapter Administered Appropriations were up by HUF 190bn year-on-year, as a result of the acceleration of payments. In addition, it has to be noted that revenues from corporate income tax, value-added tax, excise tax, personal income tax, the social contribution tax and other contributions grew significantly, by some HUF 500bn.

The deficit in the month of September 2015 was HUF 39.7bn, while in the corresponding period of the previous year the sector posted a surplus of 14.2bn. The difference between the amounts of the two years is also basically the consequence of the different timing of EU-related revenues and expenditures. While the EU-related revenues of Chapter Administered Appropriations were down by HUF 39bn year-on-year, EU-related expenditures were up by HUF 64bn over the past one year.

The ESA-deficit target remains to be 2.4 percent of GDP for 2015 -- a realistic assumption in light of available data.

(Ministry for National Economy)