In comparison to the November 2014 forecast, among the Visegrád Four it was Hungary regarding which the OECD has made the largest positive revisions to the estimates of economic indicators. Thus, the OECD has joined international organizations that are increasingly appreciative of the favourable performance of the Hungarian economy and the growth outlook. The Government, the European Commission, the IMF, the OECD, major international economic think-tanks and market analysts have come to share the same opinion on the country’s economic achievements.

According to the OECD prognosis, Hungary’s economic growth will be 3 percent this year and 2.2 percent next year. The 2015 and 2016 estimates are 0.9 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points higher, respectively, than those in the OECD’s November study. The improvement is even more striking in light of the forecast one year ago when the OECD predicted economic expansion to be 1.6 percent of GDP in 2015.

The organization has also adopted an upbeat stance on the structure of growth. They expect domestic demand to continue as one of the growth engines, as low inflation-induced real wage increases and bank refunds following the phasing-out of forex loans are set to have a positive impact on consumption. The OECD points out that the phasing-out of forex loans has also pre-emptively defused risks potentially arising from future negative exchange rate movements that may endanger households’ finances. Parallel to the weakening of the Euro and rebounding Euro-zone economic growth – due mainly to strong relations with German enterprises – Hungarian exports show dynamic growth. Measures such as the reduction of the bank tax, the extension of the Funding for Growth Scheme and efforts to create a more predictable regulatory environment within the financial sector also serve expansion.

In the opinion of the OECD, global economic growth will remain subdued and stay below pre-crisis levels. As a whole, this year’s global growth is seen lower than predicted in the OECD’s November 2014 study, while next year’s figure is unchanged. Therefore it is of special significance that Hungary’s economic growth is seen to remain on a stable path with outstanding growth rates within Europe while global growth has turned rather sluggish since the November study.

The latest publication of the half-yearly Economic Outlook of the OECD is to be presented at a ministerial meeting at the OECD’s Paris headquarters later today. The study examines the 2014-2016 period, outlines economic events and the outlook of the global economy as well as that of member countries.

(Ministry for National Economy)