The 3.6 percent economic growth recorded in 2014 proves that Hungary’s economic performance has been stable. This was one of the achievements that prompted Standard&Poor’s to revise upward by one notch the country’s credit rating. The predictable economic environment had also made it possible for the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) to further reduce the base rate, after which the forint exchange rate saw strong appreciation.
Standard&Poor’s was the first major credit rating agency to acknowledge the impressive performance of the Hungarian economy by raising the country’s rating to BB+ on 20 March 2015. Thus, Hungary is in the same category at all three leading credit rating institutions. The decision was the result of a stable budget and higher-than-expected economic growth. The upgrade was also underpinned by the agreement between the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the Government of Hungary which, among others, secures lower bank taxes.
In November 2014-January 2015, the number of people in employment was 4 million 127 thousand, up by 3.5 percent or 141 thousand year-on-year. Within that, the employment rate of those aged 15-64 years was 62.5 percent in the observed period, an increase of 2.8 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. The employment indicators for men and women showed similar increases (2.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively). This means that the number of men aged 15-64 years with a job was 2 million 208 thousand, while that of women in the same age group was 1 million 889 thousand.
In the last quarter of 2014, the performance of the manufacturing, construction and agricultural sectors improved impressively. In the observed period, added value of the manufacturing sector gained 5.5 percent compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Within the manufacturing sector, output at vehicle manufacturers and related suppliers increased significantly. In 2014, the volume of investment within the national economy soared by 14 percent.
The European Commission published last week an in-depth analysis on Hungarian macroeconomic imbalances and a Country Report which provides the basis of country-specific recommendations scheduled to be published in May. On the one hand, the study acknowledges the results recently achieved within the country’s economy and it calls attention to future pitfalls on the other.
Data published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on 24 February 2015 indicate that the number of building permits issued in Hungary has overcome a key level in 2014.
Data from Q2 2014 on the floor area of residential property for which building permits have been issued show that the 2010 level has been reached. The number and floor area of residential property units the building of which was approved had bottomed out in 2013 and a sharp trend reversal was recorded in 2014. Last year, the number of building permits issued for residential property was 9633, up by 28 percent compared to 2013 statistics.
In order to increase the profitability and lending capacity of the Hungarian banking sector, the Government of Hungary concluded a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
In the month of January 2015, consumer prices were on average 1.4 percent lower in comparison to the corresponding period of the previous year. In this period, prices of automotive fuel and household energy fell significantly. The former drop was caused by declining crude oil prices on global markets, while the latter was the result of the Government-mandated public utility price cuts that had been aimed to ease the financial burden on families.
The Hungarian Government has been placing special emphasis on reinvigorating and supporting the domestic tourism sector. Allocations for tourism sector development in this year’s budget total HUF 5bn, up by HUF 2bn compared to the previous year. Statistics show that Hungary’s popularity as tourism destination has been increasing among domestic and international travellers as well. The country’s special characteristics in comparison to other European states and the Government’s tourist-friendly policy are also contributing to this trend.
During the years following 2008, the average price per square meter of real estates had been gradually falling, but since a positive U-turn in 2014 demand has been rising on the Hungarian market, both in the commercial and residential segments. The Family Housing Grant scheme to be launched in 2015 will add further impetus to the rebound on the real estate market.