Currently available data show that, at current prices, Hungary’s external trade of goods in 2017 is predicted to have posted the largest growth in years. According to a recently published report by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), in the period January-November 2017 the value of both inbound and outbound trade of goods already exceeded the level seen in the full year of 2016. The value of exports and imports totalled EUR 93.3bn and EUR 85.6bn, respectively, up by 8.8 percent and 11.9 percent year-on-year. The trade surplus, at EUR 7 741 million, was EUR 1 493 million lower than it was in the corresponding period of 2016.
The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) published the latest Report on the Balance of Payments at the beginning of January 2018, analysing data for the third quarter of last year. The study finds that trends prevalent in prior quarters continued in the observed period. Although the current account surplus has declined the external vulnerability of the economy improved further due to the overall decrease in external debt levels.
According to data by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), trends prevalent in current years have persisted and the expansion of Hungary’s tourism sector has continued. The number of tourism nights by Hungarian residents has increased dynamically over the past one year, while that of foreign residents soared in the observed period. When data on the turnover and the number of nights spent at accommodation establishments are compared within the Visegrad Four, it also shows that Hungary has performed well.
2017 was a successful year for the Hungarian economy. Increasingly positive data in the regular reports published by Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) showed favourable trends in various economic sectors. In the period Q1-Q3 2017, the volume of GDP, the most comprehensive indicator of overall economic performance, gained 3.8 percent compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, and for the full year the pace of growth is expected to significantly exceed last year’s 2 percent and the EU’s average.
In the first ten months of the year, the composition of general government debt has improved markedly: the share of HUF-denominated debt continued to increase and that of foreign currency debt has accordingly declined. In addition, the share of securities held by residents has also increased significantly.
Both output and gross value added in Hungary’s agricultural sector have in recent years grown continuously in terms of current prices. Following the crisis years, especially since 2012, the output volume of arable crops has soared. This has been the result, among other factors, of the larger amount and more focused utilization of EU funding as well as the positive impact of years of favourable weather conditions on productivity.
The Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) published a second estimate of GDP growth for the third quarter of 2017 on 5 December 2017. The latest data show that in the observed period GDP per capita grew by 3.9 percent year-on-year.
In Q3 2017, the volume of investment rose by 3.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and by 18.3 percent year-on-year. According to the latest flash report of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), in the first three quarters of the year the volume of investment was up by 22.6 percent compared to the corresponding period of 2016.
According to the latest report by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), the long-term upward trend in retail sales remained unchanged in the month of September 2017. September was the 51st month in a row when sales were rising in the sector: data adjusted for calendar effects show that the volume of sales increased by 6 percent year-on-year. In the period January-September 2017, the volume of sales was up by 4.3 percent compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.
On 10 November, Fitch Ratings followed other credit rating agencies and revised the outlook of Hungary’s sovereign credit rating from “stable” to “positive”. Fitch had been the first of the “big three” credit rating agencies to restore Hungary’s position in the investment-grade category last year, a move followed by the two other major agencies later in the same year. The latest decision presages a further potential upgrade possibly within the next year.